And I’m aware of unexpected turbulence…I just don’t see getting banged about that big a deal. Shit happens. Wrong place, wrong time… Sure, put on your seatbelt when you’re sitting down, but even if you don’t you’re probably not going to die from it
“J. E. Littlewood, a mathematician at Cambridge University, wrote about the law of truly large numbers in his 1986 book, “Littlewood’s Miscellany.” He said the average person is alert for about eight hours every day, and something happens to the average person about once a second. At this rate, you will experience 1 million events every thirty-five days. This means when you say the chances of something happening are one in a million, it also means about once a month. The monthly miracle is called Littlewood’s Law.” - David McRaney
This is why people build houses in flood zones. What are the odds this will affect me? And every year, people gamble with those one in a million odds, and someone loses. Then their friends console each other at the funeral that it was a freak accident and who could have predicted it would happen? And why were they in that position? Because people don’t have an intuitive grasp of statistics, particularly low probability and high frequency, and what the are odds it will happen to them. But it’s happening to someone all the time, and much more likely to the one who says, “Well, it probably won’t be me.”
“J. E. Littlewood, a mathematician at Cambridge University, wrote about the law of truly large numbers in his 1986 book, “Littlewood’s Miscellany.” He said the average person is alert for about eight hours every day, and something happens to the average person about once a second. At this rate, you will experience 1 million events every thirty-five days. This means when you say the chances of something happening are one in a million, it also means about once a month. The monthly miracle is called Littlewood’s Law.” - David McRaney
This is why people build houses in flood zones. What are the odds this will affect me? And every year, people gamble with those one in a million odds, and someone loses. Then their friends console each other at the funeral that it was a freak accident and who could have predicted it would happen? And why were they in that position? Because people don’t have an intuitive grasp of statistics, particularly low probability and high frequency, and what the are odds it will happen to them. But it’s happening to someone all the time, and much more likely to the one who says, “Well, it probably won’t be me.”
I don’t think you get what I’m saying.
If you build your house in a flood zone… Well, I feel for you. That sucks, but I’m not going to lose sleep over it
If the state is cutting taxes to incentize building in a flood plain (which is a thing that has happened), in going to be very upset