FriendOfDeSoto

My crystal ball tells me she will not be part of the next government. I think very few of the current SPD ministers will be. Possibly none of them. The stink of the past, failed coalition “Ampel” government will keep them out.

As I said before, it’s too early to despair, there is potential for surprises, and we should keep an eye on it.

True. But the social democrats are the only feasible way to a majority for Merz right now without the help of Nazis. There is at least potential strength in that. Plus the SPD know about their past. They’ll have to find a way to strengthen their party’s position in government somehow. They may surprise us with the spontaneous growth of a backbone in this area, under new leadership. All I’m saying is the die is not cast yet.

Party manifestos are dreamy wishlists for a parliament, in which they have the absolute majority. Merz’s CDU tories did not win one. He’ll need to form a coalition. Most likely outcome is one with the SPD social democrats. Coalition talks have a way of grinding these wishlists down. And they take time. So keep a watchful eye but it’s too early to despair.