I think the opportunity is better this time around.

Democrats and Republicans secured a two party system and locked everyone else out because of a few things:

1. Finances and resources.
2. Media coverage. During debates, they had secret handshake deals to only argue against each other, which forces media to only cover them.

Musk got resources. He spent a lot to get Orange Man in power. And TV and news is already lower on the trust scale, as the population leans towards social media.

There’s a few other issues like local/state elections that won’t be friendly to non-Democrat/non-republican parties.

Of course, this is all a pipe dream and like the libertarian party, it’ll quickly get thrown aside and the politicians will fold into one of the two parties.