Summary
Canada will maintain its initial $30 billion (CA$) in retaliatory tariffs despite Trump postponing 25% tariffs on many Canadian imports for a month.
A second wave of tariffs, originally planned at $125 billion (CA$), has been suspended. Ontario will still raise electricity prices for U.S. customers, and B.C. is considering tolls on U.S. trucks going to Alaska.
Trudeau expects a prolonged trade war, following a heated call with Trump.
About 62% of Canadian imports remain subject to tariffs, as Trump pushes for U.S. companies to shift production domestically.
My worry is that there really is no way down for Canada. Nobody can trust any guarantee from trump so there is no difference between “tariffs until we have guarantees” and “tariffs until the next time you fuck around”. Because, as trump is incapable of learning, tariffs hurt the populace of the country imposing them more than anyone else.
That said: We (the US) desparately need hardship to force people to stop “being apolitical” or “ignoring the news for my mental health” and to get in the fucking streets. So…
Frankly, I fully encourage the stance of “we’ll trade war the shit out of you as long as orangeboi and friends are in charge”. I am completely serious. It needs to be done.
It’s unclear whether he doesn’t understand or whether he doesn’t care. If the aim is to disorient traditional allies while pumping the markets up and down for profit and plundering public funds while people are too confused to stop you, and keeping in the good books of your “friend” in Russia, the well being of the US population won’t even factor into his calculations.
Tariffs always hurt the customer, especially when it comes to raw resources; but can have the potential to hurt the seller as well (in the form of lost business).
With import tariffs the recipient pays to import an item, directly costing them more. With an export tariff, the shipper pays extra, so they raise their prices to compensate, also costing the customer more.
Now with manufactured products, the customer may have local options that are now cheaper than an import+tariffs (but still more expensive than they were paying previously), which means the foreign manufacturer has to invest in a local facility or loose customers. The customer may just be stuck with it though.
With raw resources however, it’s much less likely the customer can purchase cheaper elsewhere so they will likely just be stuck with the higher cost.
Potash for example, the US heavily imports from Canada for use in fertilizer and just doesn’t produce in sufficient quantities for it’s farmers (>90% is imported). If Trump follows through and imposes his tariff on that (I think that one was 10%), farmers will have no options but to buy less or spend more. It does nothing but harm the US.
Likewise with Canada imposing a tariff on electricity; our energy companies are going to charge more per kwh to compensate for the extra costs, and the affected states will have no choice but to pay more. Again harming the US as a result of Trumps decisions.
And, as trump (and apparently you) don’t realize: it takes a lot of time to stand up manufacturing infrastructure. And that inherently depends on tariff’d raw materials and machines.
In a world where “nations” are towns on either side of the river? Tariffs “make sense”. You are growing your own corn so you want to actively discourage anyone from buying corn from across the river. That said, it also forces everyone to grow corn and rice and tomatoes and peppers. Rather than specializing to lower the cost for everyone.
In a modern post industrial global economy? Everyone is already specialized to hell and back. And many resources only exist in other countries to begin with. So while selective tariffs CAN lead to long term change, they inherently cause short to medium term hardship. Which is why the focus is more on tax incentives to build out that infrastructure.
Canada needs to use tariffs for three reasons.
First? Because trump is a fucking moron and this is the only language he understands.
Second? Because the US economy is so heavily dependent on exports and the only way to make us feel this is to shut down the import side in Canada. But this will cause great hardship for Canadians.
Third? To do the borderline medieval task of forcing industries to find new sources. Except they won’t be building up internal infrastructure. They will be importing from China and Europe.
But tariffs themselves? They inherently harm the nation imposing them more than anyone else in this global economy.